https://risksandreturns.com/category/global-trade/ In search of asymmetric trading opportunities… en-US https://risksandreturns.com/2007/09/11/the-trade-deficit-is-the-only-bright-spot-for-the-economy/ https://risksandreturns.com/2007/09/11/the-trade-deficit-is-the-only-bright-spot-for-the-economy/ Tue, 11 Sep 2007 20:02:36 +0000 Here is a look at the US trade deficit since 1998: https://risksandreturns.com/2007/08/21/the-world-should-fear-a-us-slowdown/ https://risksandreturns.com/2007/08/21/the-world-should-fear-a-us-slowdown/ Tue, 21 Aug 2007 13:00:14 +0000 I am in the camp that believes the US will soon enter a period of economic stagnation or recession, which will significantly cut growth in most parts of the world. To elaborate, I am posting the following excerpt from the recent Quarterly Review and Outlook, Second Quarter 2007 from Hoisington Investment Management: https://risksandreturns.com/2007/03/08/the-us-trade-deficit-as-a-source-of-global-liquidity/ https://risksandreturns.com/2007/03/08/the-us-trade-deficit-as-a-source-of-global-liquidity/ Thu, 08 Mar 2007 21:16:40 +0000 I have discussed before the importance of the yen carry trade for pumping liquidity into financial markets worldwide. But the US trade deficit may be a far greater source of easy money. The entire yen carry trade is widely estimated to be worth $200 billion. Compare this to the US trade deficit which is running at $800 billion per year. https://risksandreturns.com/2006/10/29/the-china-growth-myth/ https://risksandreturns.com/2006/10/29/the-china-growth-myth/ Sun, 29 Oct 2006 10:28:51 +0000 The Chinese growth story has received an enormous amount of press in recent years. Indeed, after a lull during the late nineties, China’s economy began to accelerate growth in 2002 and has been averaging 10% since then. It is now the 4th largest economy in the world after US, Japan and Germany. https://risksandreturns.com/2006/09/27/another-yuan-revaluation-imminent/ https://risksandreturns.com/2006/09/27/another-yuan-revaluation-imminent/ Wed, 27 Sep 2006 10:39:12 +0000 Recently the yuan has picked up its pace of appreciation against the U.S. dollar. Over the past week, the yuan has appreciated by 0.5% against the dollar and its current rate of 7.90 is the highest since its revaluation in July of last year. I believe this is setting up the stage for another revaluation before the end of the year.